How to read this
The differential is matchup-adjusted, not a raw plus/minus.
Only even-strength play is included. Power plays, penalty kills, empty-net states, and shootouts are excluded from points, baseline ice time, and direct matchup exposure.
For each elite player, direct even-strength matchup minutes are divided by that elite player’s average even-strength time on ice per game. This produces “game equivalents.” Expected points apply the elite player’s full-season even-strength P/GP to those game equivalents; actual points are even-strength points recorded while the opponent was on the ice or up to five seconds after the opponent’s shift ended.
At stoppages, NHL shift charts commonly end the on-ice players’ shifts and begin the next line at the exact same timestamp. Shift starts are therefore exclusive: the outgoing player can receive the five-second grace, but the post-stoppage line is not credited for a goal that already occurred.
Negative is better defensively. A −0.300 differential means elite players produced 0.300 fewer points per normalized matchup game than their own baselines. Rankings require at least 10 game equivalents against at least 10 different elite players. Results describe on-ice association and should not be read as isolated causal effects.