2025–26 · Regular season · 5-on-5

Goalie, or
the defense?

Separate shot-stopping from the chances allowed in front of every NHL goaltender with more than 25 starts.

—Games analyzed
—Goalies included
—Shots modeled

The separation

Defensive environment × goalie performance

Left is a lighter defensive workload. Up is better shot-stopping. Select any goalie for details.

← Better defenseBetter goaltending ↑
Goaltending versus defensive environment scatterplotEach point is a qualifying goalie. Lower expected goals against indicates better defense; higher goals saved above expected indicates better goaltending.
Strong bothLow xGA, positive GSAx
Goalie carryingHigh xGA, positive GSAx
Defense shelteringLow xGA, negative GSAx
Both strugglingHigh xGA, negative GSAx

Qualified goalies

Complete 5-on-5 results

Ranked by GSAx/60. A lower defense rank means the goalie faced a lower xGA rate.

Goalie rankGoaltenderStartsDefense rankxGA/60GSAx/60GSAxSV%xSV%SV%−xSV%

Methodology

Chance quality belongs to the environment. The result above expectation belongs to the goalie.

Defense: xGA/60 estimates the scoring danger of all unblocked attempts—including misses—while the goalie was on the ice. Lower is better. SA/60 and high-danger SA/60 are available as alternate views.

Goaltending: GSAx is on-target expected goals against minus actual goals against. Positive means the goalie stopped more than the model expected. Missed shots are not credited as saves. Rates use shift-derived 5-on-5 ice time.

Separate defensive and goaltending expected-goals models are trained exclusively on 2025–26 regular-season 5-on-5 outcomes. Both use shot distance, angle, type, and whether a saved shot by the same team occurred within the previous three seconds. “High danger” means an on-target shot had at least — expected goals.

Important limitation: official play-by-play does not consistently record screens, pre-shot passes, or rush context. The chart measures the recorded shot environment, not every defensive contribution.